by confoundedinterest17
I told my family yesterday, “The good news is that Rotolo’s pizza tastes even better reheated in the morning. The bad news? I ate the only two slices left.”
Which brings me to the September job report. The good news is that 263,000 jobs were added to the US economy. That means 10,521 thousand jobs have been added in the 21 months under Biden! (Note that 12,100,000 jobs were added in the 7 months under Trump after the Covid economic shutdown, but no media outlets proclaimed this achievement).
The bad news? Even though nominal average hourly earnings grew by 5% year-on-year, when I subtract Bidenflation from this number I get a growth of -3.06%. Or should I say that REAL wages are shrinking under Biden.
Now for the “Miracle Biden” of jobs being added. Here is a chart of NFP jobs added (white line) against M2 Money and headline inflation. Both the Fed and the federal government injected trillions into the economy, resulting in the highest inflation rate in 40 years. Once governments stopped their covid shutdown nonsense, jobs would come back regardless of who was president. BUT federal spending and Fed money printing went off the rails in early 2020.
As Paul Harvey said, “Here’s the rest of the story.” Labor force participation fell in September and the under-3 unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.5%.
But dropping out of the labor force increased and led to a decline in under-3 unemployment. The number of people NOT in the labor force grew to 100 million. Nothing has been the same since Covid.
So what will the Fed do? According to Fed Funds Futures (WIRP) data, the Fed will continue to raise rates until March 23 and then slowly start lowering interest rates again.
A “Tutto” pizza from Rotolo!
