Kimberly Lenehan Payano evacuated her North Fort Myers home during Hurricane Irma five years ago under dire storm and wind warnings, then returned to a pristine home.
He decided not to leave for Hurricane Ian.
“It was the biggest mistake I’ve ever made in my life. Big, big mistake,” Payano said this week.
Many of his neighbors also stayed, some not even covering their windows. She still doesn’t know how it went. If not for a couple of men in a small boat, she and her 12-year-old son might have been among the dozens who died.
The rise in the death toll in Florida, now at 75, is confirmation that many did not evacuate.
Including five deaths in North Carolina and one in Virginia, Ian ranks among the 30 deadliest storms in the continental United States. It is also the 11th storm in the last 22 years to claim more than 50 lives on land.
With warmer ocean temperatures leading to increased rainfall and other climate-related changes predicted, researchers are predicting bigger and even deadlier disasters.
“The risk posed by these storms is only going to increase … because of rising sea levels and increased population density,” said Amber Silver, a disaster researcher and assistant professor at the University at Albany in New York. “As more and more people in vulnerable regions become more and more vulnerable due to global climate change and sea level rise, we will see some of these shocking events with large numbers of deaths and large losses economic”.
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The deaths related to Ian illustrate how the impacts of a disaster are not only driven by the strength of a hurricane, said Stephen Strader, an associate professor at Villanova University. They are influenced by the vulnerability of people and the decisions they make.
“We’re seeing more people than ever before moving to the coasts and putting themselves in vulnerable positions,” Strader said. Florida is a good example. “Since Hurricane Andrew (in 1992), Florida’s population has increased by 60% and the number of homes has doubled. That means more people on the road.”
The state’s 65-plus population is growing, and that increases the risks because it may be more difficult for those people to evacuate, researchers said. The average age among the confirmed deaths in Ian so far is almost 71.
Many of the hurricane-related deaths reported in Florida were among people who did not evacuate before Ian’s 150 mph winds and storm surge, despite forecasts and warnings from government officials.
At least 10 people drowned in their homes. Others were found on beaches and among piles of debris.
Payano’s narrow escape and numerous deaths reflect the challenges of communicating personal risk to people in vulnerable areas as they make life-or-death decisions, Silver said. “It’s never a simple ‘yes or no’ question. It’s when and where and for how long? And can I afford to leave?”
It is a very emotional moment, in a situation with a lot of uncertainty and urgency, he said. “It’s a really uncomfortable feeling.”
People have “a strong sense of home and place,” said Robbie M. Parks, assistant professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University. “If their evacuation prospects are a shelter and lying around with strangers, they may not want to evacuate.”
As they try to make their decisions, people go through a process of researching information, talking to friends, neighbors and family, Silver said.
This may include incorrect information.
“The lack of universal truth in society permeates pandemics. It permeates natural disasters,” Parks said. “So people may not be completely faithful that the news they’re hearing about hurricanes is true. It’s a very deep problem that’s much harder to fix.”
From the outside looking in, it’s easy to make judgments about how people made their decisions, said disaster researcher Samantha Montano, an assistant professor at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy. But, he said, “in general, people are trying to make the best decisions for themselves and their families with the resources they have.”
Individual circumstances and whether people have the resources to evacuate are important influences, Montano said. “Do they have a car? Do they have money for gas? Do they have money for a hotel room?”
Residents of many hurricane-prone areas also do not understand the dangers of water.
Hurricane Andrew in 1992 taught Floridians to fear the wind, Strader said, but up to 90 percent of hurricane deaths are attributed to storm surge and rain.
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In Volusia County, on the opposite side of Florida from Ian’s landfall, three people drowned and hundreds were rescued from flash flooding caused by heavy rain and rising seas.
State medical examiners attribute more than half of Ian’s deaths so far to drowning.
Things turned dire for Payano when the Caloosahatchee River reached its banks and rushed into his home. They had planned to drive away if the water started to rise, then “half a neighbor’s house landed in the driveway” and they were pinned down.
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As the water rose, she posted a plea for help in a Facebook video and they saw a barge float away and then a couch.
Waist-deep water swirled around them as lifeguards arrived and lifted their son, the family dog and cat, stuffed inside a bag, into a small rowboat. Tucking her cell phone and charger into her bra, and without grabbing her glasses or purse, Payano walked out the door and waded into neck-deep water.
She was dragged a couple of times and sank as she and rescuers pulled the boat with her son and pets more than a mile to a staging area on a bridge, she said. “We got halfway through and I said, ‘Go without me.’ I didn’t care if I was going to die right there in the water.”
Now temporarily staying with friends, Payano is wondering whether he should rebuild his lot with 200 feet of Caloosahatchee River frontage or cut his losses and move.
He has homeowners and flood insurance, but it’s a tough choice he’s heard other friends and neighbors debate.
As she looks at the devastation around her and considers the forecast for more extreme rainfall, warmer oceans and rising sea levels, she’s not really sure she wants to stay. “If I didn’t have a kid in school, I’d be leaving the state of Florida right now.”
