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SAO PAULO – Fertilizer deliveries to Brazilian farmers could fall by 5% to 7% this year, an executive at Brazilian trade group Anda said on Wednesday, citing analyst figures and industry estimates.
Anda, which represents global suppliers such as Nutrien and Mosaic, said farmers have delayed purchases or decided not to buy fertilizer this season amid rising prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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After the start of the conflict, Brazil rushed to secure supplies, as it depends on imports for 85% of its domestic use, putting pressure on ports and other logistics capacity.
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“We brought more fertilizer than the farmer needed at that time,” said Ricardo Tortorella, Anda’s executive director, referring to the first half of 2022. “These ports are closed, they are all full to this day.”
Tortorella said possible unforeseen weather problems, uncertainty about Chinese demand for crops and the war in Ukraine
it had also explained the lower demand for fertilizers. Logistics bottlenecks at ports had not affected deliveries to farmers, he said.
“The atypical stance of the producer is natural,” he said. “The farmer has to calculate the risks and do a lot of math.”
Volatile fertilizer prices have fallen somewhat, which could boost fertilizer demand in the near term, Tortorella and an analyst said.
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While fears of a global fertilizer shortage boosted imports in Brazil, it also changed the outlook for domestic production, which is set to grow for the first time in 15 years, according to Tortorella.
Anda’s latest data on July fertilizer deliveries, released this week, had pointed to the possibility of a drop in deliveries this year.
Deliveries in July fell almost 30%, with January-July deliveries down almost 9% to 21.7 million tonnes.
Still, a drop in deliveries will not compromise expectations of a bumper grain harvest, Tortorella said. (Reporting by Ana Mano; Editing by Richard Pullin)
