AUD/USD: on the eve of the RBA meeting – Analytics & Forecasts – 3 October 2022

Market participants following the dynamics of commodity currencies and in particular the Australian dollar will be awaiting the release tomorrow (at 03:30 GMT) of the RB Australia’s rate decision interest It is expected to rise again (between 0.50% and 2.85%). In fact, this is a bullish factor for the national currency. The AUD may also receive support amid a decrease in supply in the natural gas market due to the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines. Australia is known to be a major supplier of raw materials such as coal and liquefied natural gas.

However, the market reaction to tomorrow’s interest rate hike may not be very positive, and the rate hike may not become a growth driver for the AUD, given the growing recession risks for the Australian economy.

As we pointed out in our Fundamental Analysis today, at the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading near 0.6450, moving within a descending channel on the weekly chart and holding below the key resistance levels 0.7220, 0.7020.

In the main scenario, we expect a breakdown of the 0.6400 local support level and a further decline. A breakdown of the local support level 0.6363 (the lowest level since May 2020) will be a confirmation signal for our hypothesis. Today’s move may be driven by the release of important US macro statistics at the start of the US trading session (for more details, see the most important economic events of the week 03.10.2022 – 09.10.2022).

Support levels: 0.6400, 0.6363, 0.6300, 0.6200, 0.6150, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510

Resistance levels: 0.6455, 0.6518, 0.6700, 0.6760, 0.6950, 0.7020, 0.7037

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