Demand for iron ore in China may have surged earlier this month, but Swiss bank UBS says it’s a “short-lived” rise that will soon collapse. The investment bank said it believes earlier demand was partly driven by replenishment ahead of a national holiday week in China that begins on Oct. 1, when industrial activity is expected to decrease China is also likely to implement its “Blue Sky” policy, a program to reduce pollution, starting in mid-October ahead of a meeting of Chinese Communist Party officials in Beijing. This means thousands of industrial facilities and chemical plants will be temporarily shut down to improve air quality in the region, further stifling demand. This will come at a time when prices for iron ore, used mainly by steelmakers, have already collapsed in the wake of China’s housing crisis. The September 27 UBS report said global demand for iron ore had already weakened as production of pig iron, an intermediate in steelmaking, fell 7% compared to August last year. Mining companies exposed to the commodity are likely to be affected by the upcoming shift in demand. Here’s what awaits the industry’s biggest names, according to the bank: Rio Tinto UBS predicted that London-listed mining giant Rio Tinto is on track to send iron ore to the low end of its previous guide Rio Tinto’s exports from Western Australia are likely to fall 1% in the third quarter of this year compared with 2021, UBS said. With more than 60% of the company’s revenue coming from the commodity, according to its 2021 results, UBS said the price of iron ore is the key driver for the stock. Although its shares have fallen more than 20% since their recent peaks, UBS said there is more downside risk. The investment bank has a price target of 43 pounds ($46) per share for Rio, representing an 11.7% downside from current levels. Anglo American Anglo American’s sales from its South African mine are expected to fall 9% in the three months to September, according to research by the Swiss bank. Iron ore sales accounted for two-fifths of its revenue in its 2021 filings, making the company dependent on the commodity performing well. UBS has labeled Anglo American with a “sell” rating and a £26 ($28.3) price target per share. That would be 5% below current levels. Who are the winners? Analysts expect Australian miners BHP and Fortescue Metals to see year-on-year growth in iron ore shipments from their biggest mines of 2% and 4% respectively. But because iron ore accounts for more than half of BHP’s revenue and Fortescue Metals is a single-commodity miner, its fortunes are closely tied to the path of commodity prices, the investment bank said . UBS said it is “cautious” on BHP as it expects commodity prices to fall over the next year or two, pressuring cash flows and yields as capital spending rises. “Cost control will become increasingly important for FMG if iron ore prices pull back as expected,” UBS said, referring to Fortescue Metals Group. BHP shares are currently trading 7.5% above their A$35.50 ($23) price target, and Fortescue Metals Group shares are 6.2% above their $15 price target .80 Australian dollars ($10.2).
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