Forecasters expect Tropical Storm Ian to rapidly strengthen in the central Caribbean over the weekend, and the storm could become the first Atlantic hurricane to hit the continental United States this hurricane season, with an early arrival in Florida in the middle of next week
Ian was named a tropical storm Friday afternoon in the eastern Caribbean Sea and could become a major hurricane within days, according to forecasts.
“Due to very warm waters and a minimal amount of perturbing winds expected, there is a chance for the system to experience rapid strengthening anytime this weekend through midweek,” the forecaster said long range by AccuWeather Paul Pastelok.
The storm’s track continued to turn west toward the Florida area on Saturday, the National Weather Service forecast. The Weather Service’s cone forecast also shows the storm is expected to upgrade from a hurricane to a major hurricane off the west coast of Cuba early Tuesday morning, earlier than previously thought.
Here’s what the National Hurricane Center expects in the coming days:
- The storm is expected to pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday.
- It is expected to become a hurricane around Sunday night.
- Ian’s track will be near the Cayman Islands and Cuba on Monday.
- Early next week, the Florida Keys and South Florida may see heavy rain. Some flash and urban flooding is possible.
PREVIOUS REPORTS:Tropical Storm Ian forms in the Caribbean and could hit Florida as a major hurricane
Ian could weaken to a hurricane by the middle of late next week
Ian could be a major hurricane for much of Tuesday and Wednesday as it begins to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico, National Hurricane Center forecasts showed Saturday. Ian could downgrade to a hurricane by the time it reaches Florida Wednesday through Thursday.
But, the Weather Service said, “uncertainty in the runway forecast is higher than usual.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency Saturday afternoon ahead of the landfall for the entire state. The declaration followed DeSantis’ 24-county declaration late Friday afternoon.
“Floridians should remain vigilant and make sure their homes are prepared for a possible impact,” DeSantis said.
According to AccuWeather forecasters, there is potential for the storm’s track to change this weekend and into next week.
“Pretty much everything is still on the table at this point, from West Florida to the Florida peninsula for potential landfall,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg told USA TODAY.
Hoegg urged Florida residents to prepare for severe weather, even if they don’t live exactly where forecasts currently say the storm will make landfall: “We still expect heavy rain across the state, regardless of the exact path let him go to the storm. take.”
John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, shared a similar message: “It’s too early to tell if it’s going to be a southeast Florida problem or a central Florida problem or just all over the state,” he said.
“So at this point, the really right message for those who live in Florida is that you need to look at the forecast and prepare and prepare for the potential impact of this tropical system,” Cangialosi said.
NASA has also decided to suspend a launch attempt on Tuesday due to the storm’s impacts.
Ian path: Caribbean islands to be hit first
Jamaica is expected to see “progressively heavier rain and increasing winds” on Saturday and Sunday, AccuWeather said. The storm is then expected to most directly affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba early in the week.
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The storm is likely to hit western Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane or stronger, AccuWeather forecasters said. The country could see 6 to 10 inches of rain with local highs of up to 14 inches, the National Hurricane Center predicts.
Heavy rains can cause flash floods and mudslides in Jamaica and Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center. As Ian moves across the western Caribbean islands, there is also a risk of widespread power outages and torrential rain, according to AccuWeather.
Contact News Now reporter Christine Fernando at cfernando@usatoday.com or follow her on Twitter at @christinetfern.
Contributors: Emre Kelly, Florida Today; Associated Press
